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The 2001–2004 reform program contained macroeconomic
stabilization and structural economic reforms.
Higher growth of Turkey can assist in sustainability
of debt, better living standards toward European
Union ranks, and finally reduce unemployment.
Turkey’s general performance has been even a little better
than worlds averages. The first factors were: increased
trade
openness, liberalization of financial market, wider economic
reform
exertions, and banking system strengthening. All of them
particularly
since 1980.
But the destabilizing of economy could not prevent and
the growth rate
tended to decrease. Although Turkey has the potential to
grow similar
to the East Asia countries, its economy is still vulnerable.
The annual percent changes in real GDP was 7.4 in 2005
and 5.5 in
2006. The signs for 2007 are showing about 5.0. The annual
percent changes
in consumer prices for the same years are 8.2, 9.6 and
8.0.
To turn these percentages to numbers: Worldbank reported
363.3 US$ billions for the year 2005.
To see in which economic activities see also:
2005 Growth
Rates in GNP /Economic Activities /Percentage
Agriculture |
3.2 |
Industry |
15.5 |
Construction |
38.6 |
Trade |
12.4 |
Transportation and Communication |
15.6 |
Financial Institutions |
-0.6 |
Ownership of Dwelling |
21.7 |
Business and Personal Services |
13.6 |
Government Services |
12.2 |
Private Non-Profit Institutions |
-15.1 |
Import Duties |
16.1 |
GDP |
13.2 |
GNP |
13.4 |
Source: TURKSTAT
Meanwhile the revaluation of the Turkish old Lira (removal
of six zeroes
from the currency) took place in January 2005. The new
currency
is YTL (Yeni Türk Lirası, New Turkish Lira). Besides, the
privatization of state
owned enterprises is continuing. Turkey completed two elections,
the
general election in July 2007, and the presidential election
in August 2007.
As a member of the G-20, WTO, OECD (since 1961), EU Customs
Union,
ECO, BSC and D8, Turkey’s expectings are now in real GDP
5.0
in 2007 and 6.0 in 2008, and customer prices 8.0 in 2007
and the well low
value 4.3 in 2008 (percentage). Recent state statistics
are reflecting hopeful
values like “The third quarter growth rate of gross national
product in 2006
compared to the same quarter of previous year has increased
3.0% in constant
prices.” (Turkish Statistical Institute.)
Remaining is the most important problem of unemployment,
which is
10 – 11 % plus the underemployment of 4% (2005 est.). For
information
about formal years see table.
Labor Market Developments, 1998-2001 (in percent)
|
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
| Participation rate |
51.3 |
52.9 |
49.2 |
49.0 |
Unemployment rate |
6.3 |
7.7 |
6.6 |
8.5 |
Undermployment rate |
5.9 |
8.9 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
Rate of un- and underemployment |
12.2 |
16.5 |
13.6 |
14.5 |
Source: State Planning Organization
This values have not changed much during the last one
year. Experts are
expecting only nearly 1 point under the last years percentage.
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Foreign Trade
Although Turkey’s foreign trade shows a cyclical fluctuation
during the 70s it is yet the largest producer of agriculture
products, such
as apricot, cherry, fig, hazelnut, pomegranate and quince.
Turkey
is exporting plenty of chickpea, citrus fruit, cucumber, eggplant,
green pepper, tomato, lentil and watermelon. The mass of other
products like apple, olive, sugar beet, tobacco and tea are
worth to be mentioned.
Turkey produces also cotton and its largest industry is the
textile and
clothing industry with remarkable export totals. Then comes
oil refinery, food, chemicals, iron, steel, automotive (after
Germany). Also in producing electronics is Turkey going forward
as it becomes Europe’s largest television producer during the
last decade. Turkey’s foreign direct investment, especially
constructing, reached 1.5 billion USD. In order to the turkish
Undersecretariat of Treasury, General Directorate of Foreign
Investment, was “the cumulative investment in 1980 - 2002 period
realized as 16.2 billion USD.”
Foreign Trade, Value and Volume,
1998-2001
|
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
(in
millions of U.S. dollars) |
Exports, f.o.b. 1/ |
26,974 |
26,587 |
27,775 |
31,186 |
Imports, c.i.f. 2/ |
45,921 |
40,671 |
54,503 |
40,358 |
(percent
change) |
Total exports |
|
Value |
2.7 |
-1.4 |
4.5 |
12.3 |
Price |
-4.0 |
-6.8 |
-4.3 |
-2.6 |
Volume |
9.7 |
3.1 |
11.3 |
22.2 |
Total imports /2 |
|
Value |
-5.4 |
-11.4 |
34.0 |
-26.0 |
Price |
-4.1 |
-5.5 |
-4.5 |
-3.0 |
Volume |
-2.5 |
-1.2 |
32.7 |
-24.8 |
Oil and oil products imports |
|
Value |
-30.9 |
36.6 |
62.2 |
-17.4 |
Price |
-28.0 |
17.4 |
55.7 |
-3.6 |
Volume |
-1.7 |
-2.2 |
32.4 |
-25.4 |
Non-oil and oil products imports
2/ |
|
Value |
-5.4 |
-11.4 |
34.0 |
-26.0 |
Terms of trade |
102.4 |
101.0 |
92.5 |
90.4 |
Source: State Institute of Statistics
1/ Excluding transit trade.
2/ Excluding transit trade and nonmonetary gold.
Turkey’s external debt services for the same period are as
shown on the next table:
External Debt Service, 1998-2001 (in billions of U.S. dollars)
|
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
Total external debt service |
16.5 |
18.3 |
21.9 |
24.6 |
Interest debits |
4.8 |
5.5 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
Medium- and long-term debt repayments |
11.7 |
12.9 |
15.6 |
17.5 |
Current account receipts (exclud. official
transfers) |
62.6 |
52.9 |
59.0 |
56.8 |
Debt service ratio (in % of current account
receipts) |
26.4 |
34.6 |
37.2 |
43.3 |
Source: Turkish authorities
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